As DB's Jim Reid writes in his always entertaining weekly preview this morning, " If you'd have told anyone at the start of the year that annual US CPI would be 5.9% in the penultimate print of the year (as consensus expects on Wednesday) after already spending five months already above 5% then I don't think you'd have got many predicting that there would be utter calm and buoyancy in the market." That's certainly the case, because while Goldman was - and still is - predicting buoyancy in the market, the bank's inflation forecast has been a total disaster as the following monthly forecast revisions so clearly show - in April, the bank saw year-end headline CPI at 2,77%; it is now 6.31%. In any case, at the start of the year the forecast for the full year was 2%. That said, it is a quieter week ahead after all the fun and games of central banks and payrolls Friday last week. The peak of earnings season is well behind us now, especially in the US with...
"La verità passa per tre gradini: prima viene ridicolizzata, poi viene contrastata, infine viene accettata come ovvia" (A. Schopenhauer)