The economist consensus is optimistic about economic growth in 2022. Financial conditions will remain broadly accommodative despite monetary policy tightening. With a faster vaccine rollout and new Covid antibody cocktails, the pandemic will be under control, at least in the developed world. The direct inflationary effect of bottlenecks will progressively vanish. On the production side, supply will increase and will reduce the risk of shortage. But what if the consensus is wrong? Our proprietary leading indicator for growth, the global credit impulse, flashes a warning to major economies. It tracks the flow of new credit issued by the private sector as a percentage of GDP. In our sample, we have the eighteenth largest economies which represent 69.4 % of global GDP share. The global credit impulse is now in contraction territory, running at minus 1.3 % of global growth, according to our preliminary estimates. What is Saxo Credit Impulse ? The notion of Credi...
"La verità passa per tre gradini: prima viene ridicolizzata, poi viene contrastata, infine viene accettata come ovvia" (A. Schopenhauer)