Faber News Flow

Over half of Italian companies reported facing a liquidity shortfall by the end of 2020 and 38% reported "operational and sustainability risks,"  according to  a survey of 90,000 companies conducted by Italy's national statistics institute ISTAT. The national Italian business lobby, Confcommercio,  recently estimated  that 60% of restaurants and other businesses were short on liquidity and 30% had complained about the extra costs of implementing anti-contagion safety measures so they can start serving customers after lockdown. The tourism industry, which accounts for 13% of GDP and has been crucial in keeping Italy's economy afloat over the past decade, providing jobs for an estimated 4.2 million people, is in post-lockdown limbo. The borders have opened but foreign tourists still remain elusive. And with many local residents in no financial position to go on holiday this year, domestic demand is unlikely to pick up as much of the slack as tourism businesses are despe...

Spy Kvetcher Excuse the repeat pun today, but there was no need to publish in Australia to avoid the Official Secrets Act: just leak the contents to journalists and, hey presto, the Bloomberg headline (so far) is "Book of Bolton". Which, it must be said, lands some heavy blows on this US president. The particular hits the media are flagging are that Trump allegedly pleaded with China's Xi Jinping to help him get re-elected, and was fine with re-education/detention camps in Xinjiang. On the re-election,  was there anyone who did not think the US-China trade deal was anything but a re-election platform , either if it was adhered to (" So much winning! ") or if it were broken (" CHINA! ")? That is how (geo)politics works, warts and all. On Xinjiang the irony is that  Trump just signed into law the Uighur Human Rights Act , which requires the imposition of US sanctions on Chinese officials. Beijing's reply? " Strong indignation and firm opposition...

A decade ago Peter Turchin predicted that 2020 would be "mayhem", including "widespread civil unrest".  Turchin teaches cultural evolution at the University of Connecticut and, in 2010, predicted in the scholarly journal  Nature  that America would "suffer a period of major social upheaval" starting around the year 2020.  "They had no reason to believe I wasn't crazy," back in 2010, he told  Time .  "People did not understand that I was making scientific predictions, not prophecies." And from the current vantage point, he looks to be exactly right. 2020 started with a global pandemic and has torpedoed into further chaos with the killing of George Floyd and the ensuing riots and protests.  Turchin isn't especially excited about being right:  "As a scientist, I feel vindicated. But on the other hand, I am an American and have to live through these hard times." Turchin has spent decades studying crises in America and the ...

The following article by  David Haggith  was published on  The Great Recession Blog: Whether it is more likely for the economy to recover in a V-shaped pattern or not, the stock market did. Now it is struggling everyday to hold the pattern as it keeps trying to refasten on news of a V-shaped recovery but gets beaten down by news of COVID-19 threatening the recovery: Stocks rose on Tuesday as a record jump in retail sales — coupled with positive trial results from a potential coronavirus treatment and hopes of more stimulus — sent market sentiment soaring….  The U.S. government reported a record 17.7% increase in retail sales for May…. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a gain of 7.7%. President Donald Trump touted the strong data, adding it "looks like a BIG DAY FOR THE STOCK MARKET, AND JOBS…!" "A potential Covid steroid treatment in the UK combined with record retail sales and news of additional stimulus has been met with unbridled optimism," said Mike Loewen...