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The nascent Sino-American cold war is the key source of uncertainty in today's global economy. How the conflict plays out will affect consumer and asset markets of all kinds, as well as the trajectory of inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal conditions around the world. Escalation of the tensions between the world's two largest economies could well produce a global recession and subsequent financial crisis by 2020, even if the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks pursue aggressive monetary easing. Much, therefore, depends on whether the dispute does indeed evolve into a persistent state of economic and political conflict. In the short term, a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 28-29 is a key event to watch. A truce could leave tariffs frozen at the current level, while sparing the Chinese technology giant Huawei from the crippling sanctions that Trump has put forward; failure

Existing Home Sales Tumble YoY For 15th Month - Worst Run Since Housing Crisis | Zero Hedge Existing Home Sales Tumble YoY For 15th Month - Worst Run Since Housing Crisis After April's disappointing drop in all segments of the home-sales data, existing home sales were expected to rebound (again) in May and surprised modestly to the upside. Existing home sales rose 2.5% MoM to 5.34mm in May (and saw a modest upward revision in April) However, existing home sales have declined on a YoY basis for 15 straight months... Home purchases advanced across all four regions, led by a 4.7% rise in the Northeast. First time buyers accounted for 32% of sales nationally, unchanged from the prior month. Finally, we note that the recent drop in existing home sales suggests a lagged response in mortgage purchase applications... even with rates collapsing... As lower rates have apparently sparked a surge in prices as median home prices to a new reco

US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 10-Year Lows, Services 'Hope' Lowest On Record | Zero Hedge US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 10-Year Lows, Services 'Hope' Lowest On Record Following (slightly) better-than-expected European PMIs, expectations for US PMIs was for some stabilization after May's collapse but they did not. Both preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for June dropped further, edging closer to contraction: Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 50.6 (50.9 in May). 40-month low. Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 50.7 (50.9 in May). 40-month low. Flash U.S. Services PMI Business expectations fall to 57.8 - the lowest reading on record Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (50.5 in May). 117-month low. Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 50.2 (50.7 in May). 37-month low. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit sa