Faber News Flow

US equity futures fluctuated wildly as investors scrambled to price in shifting odds for Donald Trump's re-election and control of the Senate after the president declared victory in an early morning announcement, warning he would call on the Supreme Court to stop counting ballots in states where he led, setting up a potentially protracted vote count which would cripple any hopes for a quick post-election stimulus bill. Emini contracts swung from a gain of 2.1% to a loss of 1.3%, and were trading up around +1% as of 7am, last seen just above 3,400. While uncertainty over the outcome of the presidential race remains, there was virtually no doubt about the shape of the Senate where Republicans appear set to retain their majority, crushing hopes for a Blue Wave and a massive reflation trade as it will now be harder for lawmakers to approve a big new stimulus deal, which has boosted both Nasdaq futures, which was up 2.5% last... ... and 10Y Treasurys where yields tumbled from 0.94% to...

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, October vehicle sales, and the September trade deficit. The FOMC meets on Wednesday and Thursday this week, and no change in policy is expected. ----- Monday, November 2nd ----- 10:00 AM:  ISM Manufacturing Index  for October.  The consensus is for 55.8%, up from 55.4%. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.  The PMI was at 55.4% in September, the employment index was at 49.6%, and the new orders index was at 60.2% 10:00 AM:  Construction Spending  for September.  The consensus is for 0.9% increase in spending. All day:  Light vehicle sales  for October. The consensus is for sales of 16.5 million SAAR, up from 16.3 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the...

This article examines two inflationary experiences in the past in an attempt  to predict the likely outcome of today's monetary policies . The German hyperinflation of 1923 demonstrated that it took surprisingly little monetary inflation to collapse the purchasing power of the paper mark. This is relevant to the fate of the  "whatever it takes" inflationary policies of today's governments  and their central banks. The management of John Law's Mississippi bubble, when he  used paper money to rig the market is precisely what central bank policy is aimed at achieving today . By binding the fate of the currency to that of financial assets, as John Law proved, it is the currency that is destroyed. Introduction At the outset, I shall make a point about the relevance of the chart below, a screengrab from Constantino Bresciani-Turroni's  The Economics of Inflation , which has been frequently reproduced and will be familiar to many who have read about Germany's pos...