CLO Downgrades Will Make Oil Crash Seem Minor in Comparison

Credit is the real pillar of the stock market - not oil or tech stocks. A systematic downgrade will result in forced selling and margin calls as investors (institutions) are forced to dump to chase the quality upwards.

The Fed can go out to buy even junk grade bonds (eg the underlying collateral in the CLOs) but that is limited in number and does not cover the entire tranche. These products can get pretty sophisticated and the Fed will probably bail them out too in another form of giant receivership. But to do so they will have to extend and amend the program which may or may not require Congressional approval. Please also note that the Fed CANNOT (currently) buy CCC rated bonds.

"recall that the expanded Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) announced by the Fed last Thursday only buys AAA-rated bonds of CLOs, which after the coming tsunami of CLO downgrades is complete, will not only collapse in nominal size but will mean that any further attempts to stabilize the CLO space will require yet another Fed backstop of even riskier - i.e., rated AA and lower - structured products."

Commenti

Post popolari in questo blog

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/charting-the-world-economy-the-u-s-jobs-market-is-on-fire Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire Zoe Schneeweiss Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast , Spotify or Pocket Cast . The last U.S. payrolls report of the decade was a doozy, beating expectations and doing its bit to keep the consumer in good health heading into 2020. That's good news given the various pressures still weighing on global growth. Here's some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering a pictorial insight into the latest developments in the global economy. U.S. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content ...

Continua a leggere

Fwd: The Looming Bank Collapse The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.

After months of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there's another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed. You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse. John Lawrence: Inside the 2008 financial crash The financial...

Continua a leggere

Another Paradox: Consumer Spending Expectations Surge, Despite Dismal Income, Earnings

Call it the latest economic paradox. Despite widespread stories of doom and gloom about the state of US consumer finances once the fiscal stimulus bill expires on Dec 31, the latest NY Fed survey of consumer expectations unexpectedly shows that US consumers have little intention of slowing down their spending. In fact, and very paradoxically, despite depressed and flat income and earnings growth expectations, with median one-year ahead expected earnings growth at 2.0% for fifth consecutive month and expected income growth barely little changed at 2.14% ... ... consumers' 1-year ahead spending growth expectations jumped to 3.73% over the next 12 months in November - the highest level in more than four years, not only up from the 3.06% in the previous month but a whopping 33% more than the 2.8% reported last November, making this the biggest Y/Y increase in expected spending in series history. This bizarre increase took place even as labor market signals were mixed: although t...

Continua a leggere

Faber News Flow

Cerca nel blog