This Is The False Signal That Sent ISM Manufacturing Unexpectedly Soaring In December

After yesterday's debacle in Markit's US Manufacturing PMI (which rose against expectations of a drop thanks to supplier delivery times rising being judged as a 'positive' instead of a clear negative due to trade flow disruption on lockdowns), analysts expected ISM's Manufacturing survey to signal further deterioration occurred in December (unless slow supplier delivery times are also attributed as a positive).

As hard data has declined aggressively, Manufacturing PMI is at its highest since 2014 while ISM's Manufacturing survey prints at 60.7 - smashing expectations of 56.8 and well above the 57.5 in November...

Source: Bloomberg

ISM's Tim Fiore writes that "The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in December. Survey Committee members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to operate in reconfigured factories, but absenteeism, short-term shutdowns to sanitize facilities and difficulties in returning and hiring workers are causing strains that are limiting manufacturing growth potential. However, panel sentiment remains optimistic (three positive comments for every cautious comment), an improvement compared to November.

Labor market difficulties at panelists' companies and their suppliers will continue to restrict the manufacturing economy expansion until the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis ends.

And this is why ISM soared - Supplier Delivery Times are rising fast...

...and as far as the models are concerned that must be an indication of huge demand... rather than disruption in the global supply chain

Source: Bloomberg

As Export Orders drop... again!

Source: Bloomberg

We await the correction from ISM to "fix" this issue and downwardly revise ISM once again.

Commenti

Post popolari in questo blog

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/charting-the-world-economy-the-u-s-jobs-market-is-on-fire Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire Zoe Schneeweiss Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast , Spotify or Pocket Cast . The last U.S. payrolls report of the decade was a doozy, beating expectations and doing its bit to keep the consumer in good health heading into 2020. That's good news given the various pressures still weighing on global growth. Here's some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering a pictorial insight into the latest developments in the global economy. U.S. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content ...

Continua a leggere

Another Paradox: Consumer Spending Expectations Surge, Despite Dismal Income, Earnings

Call it the latest economic paradox. Despite widespread stories of doom and gloom about the state of US consumer finances once the fiscal stimulus bill expires on Dec 31, the latest NY Fed survey of consumer expectations unexpectedly shows that US consumers have little intention of slowing down their spending. In fact, and very paradoxically, despite depressed and flat income and earnings growth expectations, with median one-year ahead expected earnings growth at 2.0% for fifth consecutive month and expected income growth barely little changed at 2.14% ... ... consumers' 1-year ahead spending growth expectations jumped to 3.73% over the next 12 months in November - the highest level in more than four years, not only up from the 3.06% in the previous month but a whopping 33% more than the 2.8% reported last November, making this the biggest Y/Y increase in expected spending in series history. This bizarre increase took place even as labor market signals were mixed: although t...

Continua a leggere

China Exports, Imports Fall Sequentially, Adding To Slowdown Fears

China's exports rose 19.3% y/y in July, missing the median consensus expectation of 20% (ranging from 15.4% to 30.7%), and declining sequentially -0.3% in July after rising +5.7% in June. Imports also rose less than expected, up 28.1% Y/Y in July, below the 33.3% median expectation, and fell 6.4% sequentially after surging +11.3% M/M in June. As a result this disproportional slowdown in imports vs exports, China's monthly trade surplus actually rose to $56.6bn in July, slightly better than the $53.3BN consensus, and up from $51.5BN in June due to the bigger miss in imports. ASEAN was China's biggest trading partner in July, followed by the Europe Union and the U.S., customs data showed. China's exports to the US grew 13.4% in July from a year ago, while imports from America rose 25.6%, leaving a trade surplus of $35.4 billion in the month. Some more details: By geography: Export growth slowed across major export destinations, and exports to major DMs continued to be a ...

Continua a leggere

Faber News Flow

Cerca nel blog