Passa ai contenuti principali

"The Bond Market Hasn’t Been Overcome By The Same Optimism As Stocks"

In a word: Gilead. It's the optimism associated with the company's experimental Covid-19 therapy which has supported risk assets as this week nears the final stretch. Overnight, equity futures hit new post-crash highs (2965 for the S&P) as investors take solace in the progress being made to combat the outbreak. While Remdesivir (we're never going to correctly pronounce that) isn't a vaccine nor a silver-bullet to end the pandemic, the development of such a drug has shifted investor sentiment and points toward a potential path back toward a version of normality. While risk assets have benefited on the margin from this news, Gilead cannot be credited for the rally in domestic equities which has trimmed the year-to-date losses in the S&P 500 to just 9%. It's well within the realm of conceivable outcomes that May is the month stocks breakeven for 2020; leaving behind the volatility of March and April. For context, the Nasdaq is already effectively flat on the year.

The recovery of equity markets doesn't imply the economic damage from the coronavirus has been mitigated or that we've even seen the full extent of the downside; recall the current quarter is anticipated to reveal a contraction that will shatter records and models. For the time being however, the macro narrative has transitioned toward reopening, recovering, and rebuilding. The US rates market hasn't been overcome by the same optimism seen in other assets and with 10-year yields once again at 61 bp we're impressed by the sustainability of the rangeIf a -4.8% Q1 real GDP print and the Fed affirming limitless QE isn't enough to budge Treasuries, we struggle to see anything on the immediate horizon which will.

Questa immagine ha l'attributo alt vuoto; il nome del file è spx%20vs%2010y%20april%202020.jpg

Fed's Powell Says Now Is Not the Time to Worry About Federal Debt

Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.

This isn't to suggest that in 2021 10s will be holding on to the 54 bp to 78 bp zone; even if it currently appears that might be the most likely outcome. We're retaining our call to see the eventual reemergence of inflationary pressure in the wake of the pandemic, which will serve to push longer-dated Treasury yields higher and bring into focus the 1.25-1.50% range as the new year approaches. This is, as they say, a lifetime away given the current market conditions. In the very near-term, the present range will remain the defining characteristic in US rate space. As such, 54-78bp 10s will be in place well through month end and with recent experience as a guide, a sustainable breakout won't be on the table until mid-May or later. The logic underlying this call is that the incoming economic data will continue to be ignored in favor of headlines regarding the treatment of Covid-19 and the success of the reopening efforts – which will commence in earnest during the second half of the month.


Commenti

Post popolari in questo blog

Fwd: The Looming Bank Collapse The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.

After months  of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there's another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed. You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse. John Lawrence: Inside the 2008 financial crash The financial...

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/charting-the-world-economy-the-u-s-jobs-market-is-on-fire Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire Zoe Schneeweiss Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via  Apple Podcast , Spotify or  Pocket Cast . The last U.S. payrolls report of the decade was a doozy, beating expectations and doing its bit to keep the consumer in good health heading into 2020. That's good news given the various pressures still weighing on global growth. Here's some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering a pictorial insight into the latest developments in the global economy. U.S. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content ...

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time Apr. 23, 2019 8:41 AM ET Historically, an inverted yield curve has invariably led to a recession. We are currently experiencing an inverted yield curve. We have two reasons for the current inverted yield curve: the central banks irrationally raising short-term interest rates and investors expect a recession because of the extended boom period. The two reasons are not enough to lead to a recession, and other structural changes in the economy are pointing to a boom rather than a recession. Investors can capitalize on the current situation if they believe that the inverted yield cure would not lead to a recession. Summary and Paper Thesis Although an inverted yield curve led to a recession almost without exception in the last 50 years within a relatively short period of time after the inversion happened, this pap...