Passa ai contenuti principali

Financial Insanity: Good Job Numbers Equals Bad, Weakening Economy Equals Good

The DOW Jones hit its all-time high on July 11th and is still trending strongly near the 27,000-point mark, indicating that the economy is booming and all is right in the world. Nothing is wrong, nor does anything look like it could go wrong in the short- or medium- term.

This spike in price comes on the heels of last week's amazing jobs numbers, which blew away market expectations of 160,000 positions to be added throughout the month of June. However, this was vastly outperformed, as the economy added 224,000 positions instead.

But wait! You say that the markets actually threw a tantrum and were upset over these numbers last Friday, sending the markets lower on Monday? Surely, this defies all common sense!

Of course it doesn't make sense, as sanity was long ago abandoned in this new age of Quantitative Easing to infinity and perpetually low interest rates. Who needs basic economics anymore? That's a barbarous relic of the past!

You see, strengthening job numbers means that the FED may pull back the punch bowl and not lower interest rates, putting a damper on the raging low-rates, easy-money party. What was once good is now bad, and what was once bad is now good. This is the economic madness we currently live in.

Fortunately for Wall Street, they had little to fear and were simply overreacting, as we would quickly discover.

The rally resumed as the printer-in-chief, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, testified before the House Committee on Financial Services regarding the monetary policy and the state of the United States economy, making some incredibly dovish comments in his opening remarks.

A strong indication was given that he would be quite comfortable with cutting rates at this month's FED meeting, which is scheduled to take place on the 30th-31st.

This was all the green light the markets needed to resume the party and end their temper tantrums, as odds for the chances of FED rate cut at the end of this month once again shot back to their previous 100% odd level, as according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

This also caused gold bullion to resume its trend higher, once again moving above the critical $1400 price level, with a number of closes above this price point.

Once again, gold bullion appears to be the only rational, sane asset in the house, performing as it should by adjusting for an increased chance of interest rate cuts and dipping lower when the positive jobs report was released.

Meanwhile, smart Central Banks around the globe are not playing into this nonsense and are continuing to purchase precious metals, with one of the key players being China, who once again added to their gold reserves throughout the month of June, adding 10.3 tons.

Poland has also continued their accumulation in the face of this insanity, stating that they have more than doubled their gold reserves over this year and last, making them the largest holder of the yellow metal in central Europe and a possible financial powerhouse within the region in the future.

In conclusion, the future for gold and thus precious metals in general remains bright. As predicted, I believe it will continue to rally throughout the remainder of this year and next.

This asset class will be an anchor in the coming storm, as sanity and reality are forcibly injected back into the markets, as they always have been and as they always eventually will be.

Until then, keep stacking.

Commenti

Post popolari in questo blog

Fwd: The Looming Bank Collapse The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.

After months  of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there's another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed. You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse. John Lawrence: Inside the 2008 financial crash The financial...

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/charting-the-world-economy-the-u-s-jobs-market-is-on-fire Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire Zoe Schneeweiss Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via  Apple Podcast , Spotify or  Pocket Cast . The last U.S. payrolls report of the decade was a doozy, beating expectations and doing its bit to keep the consumer in good health heading into 2020. That's good news given the various pressures still weighing on global growth. Here's some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering a pictorial insight into the latest developments in the global economy. U.S. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content ...

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time Apr. 23, 2019 8:41 AM ET Historically, an inverted yield curve has invariably led to a recession. We are currently experiencing an inverted yield curve. We have two reasons for the current inverted yield curve: the central banks irrationally raising short-term interest rates and investors expect a recession because of the extended boom period. The two reasons are not enough to lead to a recession, and other structural changes in the economy are pointing to a boom rather than a recession. Investors can capitalize on the current situation if they believe that the inverted yield cure would not lead to a recession. Summary and Paper Thesis Although an inverted yield curve led to a recession almost without exception in the last 50 years within a relatively short period of time after the inversion happened, this pap...