Passa ai contenuti principali

Trader: "Asset Bubbles No Longer Work As A Cure For Growth"

If there was one message that resonated from the IMF meetings, it was that what we are doing isn't working. Acknowledging that fact is every bit as important as the forecasts of dour prospects for global growth and the risks of excess leverage. You have to start somewhere. Or maybe we should think of it as, you have to stop at some point.

It's an understandable human tendency for central bankers to worry that something bad might happen "on their watch." But it has. Too many economies are merely limping along. And no amount of asset bubbles will halt that fact. Every time someone argues that providing less liquidity will cause pain, the counterargument has to be, not for savers and future generations. What we can tolerate now isn't some radical reversal of policy. That probably would be too much of a shock. And, at this point counterproductive.

What we need is a time cure. A long period of letting things heal on their own. Emergencies can be dealt with as needed. Patience is indeed a virtue and further monetary policy activism is dangerous. This is true with or without the appropriate kind and level of fiscal spending. The world has collectively reached its reversal rate. It's presumably too late for the Fed to reconsider its October rate cut plans. But it would be a policy error to tee up anything for December and beyond. I do like the blackout periods.


Market is Focused on Growth Stocks Over Asset Classes, Kantor Says
featured by

If central banks can bring themselves to be less intrusive, they will unavoidably have to deal with the fallout from some of the over-leverage they have encouraged. Undoubtedly, some borrowers and lenders will experience the pain. But that's a different task than just throwing money at the entire system. Which merely exacerbates the problem.

Equity indexes are mostly up so far today. That's nice. And if it's actually based on trade optimism, all the better. But what actually could exude optimism is the fact that global bond yields are modestly higher across the board. We, obviously, don't need a bond tantrum, but a gentle trend higher would be remarkably healthy. More and more policy makers are beginning to realize this fact. It's certainly not something central banks, or political candidates, should try to resist. Yields, let alone negative ones, aren't this low because of crisis conditions. They are a major cause of the problem.

The dollar is under pressure. The technical picture looks like this could potentially be a sustained move. Emerging markets like it. All that dollar denominated debt they've borrowed looks to be just a little bit less of a threat. Would that mean that they used this period to reduce their exposure to dollar liquidity issues? That's probably asking too much. But it would be a prudent idea for them and their investors to keep checking on the status of the Fed's currency swap lines.

.

Source: Bloomberg

Developed market central banks should resist the urge to push back on currencies. And when the FOMC meets, they would better serve the domestic and global economies by sorting out money-market stress issues than debating 25 basis points one way or the other.

We've dug a deep hole for the global economy. But doing more of the same isn't the solution. And, frankly and emphatically, this isn't the time or place to be pursuing trade and tariff fights. Even if you think they have some merit. Read the latest economic forecasts. We simply can't afford it. As inexplicable as it is, we are unwilling to bring ourselves to do the right things. At least, we need to stop doing the wrong ones.

      


Commenti

Post popolari in questo blog

Fwd: The Looming Bank Collapse The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.

After months  of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there's another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed. You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse. John Lawrence: Inside the 2008 financial crash The financial...

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/charting-the-world-economy-the-u-s-jobs-market-is-on-fire Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire Zoe Schneeweiss Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via  Apple Podcast , Spotify or  Pocket Cast . The last U.S. payrolls report of the decade was a doozy, beating expectations and doing its bit to keep the consumer in good health heading into 2020. That's good news given the various pressures still weighing on global growth. Here's some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering a pictorial insight into the latest developments in the global economy. U.S. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content ...

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time Apr. 23, 2019 8:41 AM ET Historically, an inverted yield curve has invariably led to a recession. We are currently experiencing an inverted yield curve. We have two reasons for the current inverted yield curve: the central banks irrationally raising short-term interest rates and investors expect a recession because of the extended boom period. The two reasons are not enough to lead to a recession, and other structural changes in the economy are pointing to a boom rather than a recession. Investors can capitalize on the current situation if they believe that the inverted yield cure would not lead to a recession. Summary and Paper Thesis Although an inverted yield curve led to a recession almost without exception in the last 50 years within a relatively short period of time after the inversion happened, this pap...