Passa ai contenuti principali

Stocks Plunge, Erase Fed-Cut Spike - Here's What Wall Street Thinks

The market seems disappointed. After The Fed's 50bps rate-cut sent stocks spiking higher, all those gains have been erased...

But the market (and trump) was asking for more and Wall Street does not seem impressed... as the market's dependence in Fed largesse is revealed for all to see...

Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co:

"This should be very positive on a near-term basis. If the coronavirus causes the market to roll-back over in the coming weeks (which will confirm that the Fed cannot fight a health-care crisis), it's going to mean that we're headed for a bear market. However, this should be quite positive over the near-term."

John Augustine, chief investment officer at Huntington Private Bank:

"The Fed responded proactively to the markets, which is very unusual and may be prelude to them also reacting at their scheduled meeting in March. Other central banks are going to respond in the interim," he said.

"The market is not sure how to respond -- the markets worry with intra-meeting Fed rate cuts, what does the Fed know that we don't know? The stock market will remain volatile until coronavirus cases peak. So at this point in time, we'd say patience. We're in unprecedented territory for the Fed to act like this. This is likely going to lead to further volatility in financial markets."

Max Gokhman, the head of asset allocation for Pacific Life Fund Advisors:

"That central bank response I was talking about over the weekend is coming in quicker and hotter than anticipated. The Fed going for an emergency 50bp cut is a bit too much. It may send the message that the risk to the economy is even bigger than currently anticipated, it leaves them with less ammunition for the rest of the year (unless we go negative under Powell), and it makes them appear to be doing the Administration's bidding since it was widely reported that Mnuchin and Kudlow were pushing for a 50bp cut immediately."

Naufal Sanaullah, chief macro strategist at EIA All Weather Alpha Partners:

"The rates market was looking for 50bps of cuts by April. Equities first found their footing when Powell said he would act as appropriate, and then when G-7 announced an emergency conference call. Now that we've gotten an inter-meeting 50bps cut and the market has rebounded strongly off the lows, the upside is now relatively capped. We expect a wide, volatile range to be carved out over the next few weeks, as we consolidate the big sell-off and digest the incoming newsflow, which has the potential to deteriorate as testing proliferates further."

Neil Dutta, head of U.S. Economics at Renaissance Macro Research:

"Markets are said to stop panicking when policy makers begin to panic. The Fed just delivered an emergency cut, which qualifies as panic. But the Fed's tools are imperfect and not adequate to deal with a public health crisis. The market wants to know how far the virus will spread and the Fed cannot answer that question. The panic needs to come from the opposite of 17th Street in DC."

Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman:

"I'll say it again, the optics are bad after Trump just called for a big rate cut. Call me old-fashioned but I guess I'd like a central bank that doesn't hit the panic button every time the stock market freaks out. I know many were calling for this but I am shocked."

We give the last word to former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who warned last week...

"Does The Fed really want to have a put every time the market gets nervous? ...Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail the markets out every single time... creating a trap?"

"The Fed has created this dependency and there's an entire generation of money-managers who weren't around in '74, '87, the end of the '90s, anbd even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street... of course they're nervous."

"The question is - do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?"

the market is dependent on Fed largesse... and we made it that way...

...but we have to consider, through a statement rather than an action, that we must wean the market off its dependency on a Fed put."

Commenti

Post popolari in questo blog

Fwd: The Looming Bank Collapse The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.

After months  of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there's another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed. You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse. John Lawrence: Inside the 2008 financial crash The financial

3 Reasons Why Gold Will Outperform Equities And Bonds

3 Reasons Why Gold Will Outperform Equities And Bonds https://www.forbes.com/ 3 Reasons Why Gold Will Outperform Equities And Bonds For centuries, gold has played a major role in human history and has become interwoven into the financial fabric of society. Beyond its investment following, gold has become synonymous with wealth. Historically, gold's early use cases revolved around money – a form of "medium of exchange". After the second world war however, several countries and their respective currencies, started to shift away from the gold standard and migrated towards a fiat currency system. Today, gold remains largely a "Store of Value", and due to its unique properties and large number of use cases, it has managed to distance itself from other asset classes in terms of correlation, demand / supply drivers, and investment purpose. Gold's idiosyncrasies function as a double-edged sword, as it is challenging to predict

What Will Stocks Do When “Consensual Hallucination” Ends?

The phenomenon works – until it doesn't. What's astonishing is how long it works. There is a phenomenon in stock markets, in bond markets, in housing markets, in cryptocurrency markets, and in other markets where people attempt to get rich. It's when everyone is pulling in the same direction, energetically hyping everything, willfully swallowing any propaganda or outright falsehood, and not just nibbling on it, but swallowing it hook, line, and sinker, and strenuously avoiding exposure to any fundamental reality. For only one reason: to make more money. People do it because it works. Trading algos are written to replicate it, because it works. It works on the simple principle: If everyone believes stocks will go up, no matter what the current price or the current situation, or current fundamental data, then stocks will go up. They will go up because there is a lot of buying pressure because everyone believes that everyone believes that prices will go up, and so they bid up