Passa ai contenuti principali

Yardeni Warns 20% Pullback Could Strike Early Next Year

Veteran Wall Street strategist and Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni told CNBC on Friday that the stock market melt-up could run into exhaustion because valuation multiples are getting too rich.

"I'm concerned about a possible melt-up here," Yardeni said. "I've been shooting for 3,500 for the S&P 500 by the end of next year, and we're getting closer. Faster than I would have expected."

He warned: ″[A] 10% to 20% [correction] would be quite possible if this market gets to 3,500 well ahead of my schedule." 

Yardeni said he's concerned about the market's latest melt-up and how everyone isn't worried anymore. 

"This is not a cheap market," Yardeni said. "In early October, I looked around and said, 'you know, maybe there's some value overseas. So maybe you really got to look at emerging markets.'" 

Several months ago, Yardeni sounded more carefree, appearing on CNBC to discuss his 2020 year-end S&P 500 target of 3,500 (about 8% higher from Monday morning prices). 

In Nov., he warned valuations might have finally become stretched to the point that dangerously rapid "melt-ups" to new ATHs could prove destabilizing. 

He also said that if the S&P 500 forward earnings multiple hits 19 or 20 (compared with roughly 17 right now, which is above the long-term norm of 15-16), investors could risk sparking a "nasty correction." However, Yardeni focuses on forward earnings in his interview; his propriety Yardeni fundamental indicator is also beginning to reflect euphoric sentiment.

A close-up suggests why the decoupling occurred...


The surge of liquidity via the Federal Reserve's NOT 'Quantitative Easing' has been responsible for the market rising every single week since the program was activated, despite collapsing fundamentals. 

Yardeni warned he wouldn't be buying US stocks at the moment and said wait for the next pullback. 

Commenti

Post popolari in questo blog

Fwd: The Looming Bank Collapse The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.

After months  of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there's another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed. You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse. John Lawrence: Inside the 2008 financial crash The financial...

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg

Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/charting-the-world-economy-the-u-s-jobs-market-is-on-fire Charting the World Economy: The U.S. Jobs Market Is On Fire Zoe Schneeweiss Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via  Apple Podcast , Spotify or  Pocket Cast . The last U.S. payrolls report of the decade was a doozy, beating expectations and doing its bit to keep the consumer in good health heading into 2020. That's good news given the various pressures still weighing on global growth. Here's some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering a pictorial insight into the latest developments in the global economy. U.S. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content ...

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha

The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time | Seeking Alpha The Inverted Yield Curve: Why It Will Not Lead To A Recession This Time Apr. 23, 2019 8:41 AM ET Historically, an inverted yield curve has invariably led to a recession. We are currently experiencing an inverted yield curve. We have two reasons for the current inverted yield curve: the central banks irrationally raising short-term interest rates and investors expect a recession because of the extended boom period. The two reasons are not enough to lead to a recession, and other structural changes in the economy are pointing to a boom rather than a recession. Investors can capitalize on the current situation if they believe that the inverted yield cure would not lead to a recession. Summary and Paper Thesis Although an inverted yield curve led to a recession almost without exception in the last 50 years within a relatively short period of time after the inversion happened, this pap...